Britain is on course to becoming a 'second tier' European nation like Spain or Italy due to economic decline and a weak military that weakens its effectiveness to allies, a specialist has warned.

Research teacher Dr Azeem Ibrahim OBE concluded in a damning brand-new report that the U.K. has been paralysed by low financial investment, high tax and misguided policies that might see it lose its standing as a top-tier middle power at current development rates.

The stark assessment weighed that succeeding government failures in regulation and attracting investment had actually triggered Britain to miss out on the 'markets of the future' courted by developed economies.

'Britain no longer has the industrial base to logistically sustain a war with a near-peer like Russia for more than two months,' he composed in The Henry Jackson Society's latest report, Strategic Prosperity: The Case for Economic Growth as a National Security Priority.

The report evaluates that Britain is now on track to fall back Poland in regards to per capita income by 2030, which the main European nation's armed force will soon exceed the U.K.'s along lines of both workforce and devices on the present trajectory.

'The issue is that when we are downgraded to a second tier middle power, it's going to be almost difficult to return. Nations do not return from this,' Dr Ibrahim told MailOnline today.

'This is going to be sped up decline unless we nip this in the bud and have strong leaders who have the ability to make the difficult decisions right now.'

People pass boarded up stores on March 20, 2024 in Hastings, England

A British soldier refills his rifle on February 17, 2025 in Smardan, Romania

Staff Sergeant Rai utilizes a radio to speak to Archer teams from 19th Regiment Royal Artillery during a live fire variety on Rovajärvi Training Area, during Exercise Dynamic Front, Finland

Dr Ibrahim invited the federal government's choice to increase defence costs to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027, but warned much deeper, systemic concerns threaten to irreversibly knock the U.K. from its position as a globally influential power.

With a weakening commercial base, Britain's effectiveness to its allies is now 'falling back even second-tier European powers', he alerted.

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'Not only is the U.K. predicted to have a lower GDP per capita than Poland by 2030, but likewise a smaller army and one that is unable to sustain deployment at scale.'

This is of specific issue at a time of heightened geopolitical tension, with Britain pegged to be among the leading forces in Europe's fast rearmament project.

'There are 230 brigades in Ukraine right now, Russian and Ukrainian. Not a single European nation to install a single heavy armoured brigade.'

'This is an enormous oversight on the part of subsequent federal governments, not just Starmer's issue, of stopping working to buy our military and basically contracting out security to the United States and NATO,' he informed MailOnline.

'With the U.S. getting fatigue of offering the security umbrella to Europe, Europe now needs to stand on its own and the U.K. would have been in a premium position to in fact lead European defence. But none of the European nations are.'

Slowed defence spending and patterns of low performance are nothing brand-new. But Britain is now likewise 'stopping working to change' to the Trump administration's shock to the rules-based global order, said Dr Ibrahim.

The previous consultant to the 2021 and Security Review noted in the report that in spite of the 'weakening' of the organizations when 'protected' by the U.S., Britain is reacting by harming the last vestiges of its military may and economic power.

The U.K., he said, 'appears to be making increasingly expensive gestures' like the ₤ 9bn handover of the tactical Chagos Islands and opening talks on reparations for Caribbean Slavery.

The surrender of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean has been the source of much examination.

Negotiations between the U.K. and Mauritius were begun by the Tories in 2022, but an arrangement was announced by the Labour government last October.

Dr Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute defence and security think thank warned at the time that 'the relocation demonstrates worrying tactical ineptitude in a world that the U.K. federal government refers to as being characterised by excellent power competition'.

Calls for the U.K. to provide reparations for its historical role in the slave trade were rekindled also in October last year, though Sir Keir Starmer stated ahead of a meeting of Commonwealth countries that reparations would not be on the program.

A Challenger 2 primary battle tank of the British forces throughout the NATO's Spring Storm workout in Kilingi-Nomme, Estonia, Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk speak throughout a press conference in Warsaw, Poland, January 17, 2025

Dr Ibhramin examined that the U.K. seems to be acting against its own security interests in part due to a narrow understanding of threat.

'We understand soldiers and missiles but fail to totally develop of the risk that having no option to China's supply chains may have on our capability to respond to military aggressiveness.'

He suggested a new security design to 'enhance the U.K.'s strategic dynamism' based upon a rethink of migratory policy and threat evaluation, access to rare earth minerals in a market dominated by China, and the prioritisation of energy security and self-reliance by means of financial investment in North Sea gas and a long-overdue rethink on nuclear energy.

'Without immediate policy changes to reignite growth, Britain will end up being a lessened power, reliant on more powerful allies and vulnerable to foreign coercion,' the Foreign Policy columnist stated.

'As worldwide financial competitors magnifies, the U.K. must decide whether to accept a strong development agenda or resign itself to irreparable decline.'

Britain's commitment to the idea of Net Zero might be laudable, however the pursuit will prevent growth and obscure tactical goals, he cautioned.

'I am not saying that the environment is not crucial. But we just can not manage to do this.

'We are a nation that has failed to buy our financial, in our energy facilities. And we have considerable resources at our disposal.'

Nuclear power, consisting of making use of little modular reactors, might be a boon for the British economy and energy self-reliance.

'But we've failed to commercialise them and clearly that's going to take a significant quantity of time.'

Britain did introduce a brand-new financing design for nuclear power stations in 2022, which lobbyists consisting of Labour political leaders had insisted was crucial to discovering the cash for expensive plant-building projects.

While Innovate UK, Britain's development agency, has actually been heralded for its grants for little energy-producing business in the house, business owners have actually cautioned a larger culture of 'danger aversion' in the U.K. suppresses investment.

In 2022, incomes for the poorest 14 million individuals fell by 7.5%, per the ONS. Pictured: Waterlooville High Street, Waterlooville, Hants

Undated file photo of The British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) or Chagos Islands

Britain has regularly stopped working to acknowledge the looming 'authoritarian danger', enabling the pattern of handled decrease.

But the revival of autocracies on the world stage threats further weakening the rules-based worldwide order from which Britain 'benefits immensely' as a globalised economy.

'The danger to this order ... has actually developed partly since of the lack of a robust will to safeguard it, owing in part to ponder foreign attempts to overturn the recognition of the real lurking hazard they pose.'

The Trump administration's cautioning to NATO allies in Europe that they will have to do their own bidding has gone some way towards waking Britain approximately the seriousness of investing in defence.

But Dr Ibrahim alerted that this is insufficient. He urged a top-down reform of 'basically our entire state' to bring the ossified state back to life and sustain it.

'Reforming the welfare state, reforming the NHS, reforming pensions - these are essentially bodies that use up immense amounts of funds and they'll simply keep growing substantially,' he informed MailOnline.

'You could double the NHS budget plan and it will really not make much of a dent. So all of this will need essential reform and will take a great deal of guts from whomever is in power due to the fact that it will make them undesirable.'

The report outlines suggestions in extreme tax reform, pro-growth immigration policies, and a renewed focus on protecting Britain's role as a leader in modern industries, energy security, and international trade.

Vladimir Putin speaks with the governor of Arkhangelsk area Alexander Tsybulsky throughout their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, March 11, 2025

File photo. Britain's economic stagnation could see it quickly become a 'second tier' partner

Boarded-up stores in Blackpool as more than 13,000 shops closed their doors for good in 2024

Britain is not alone in falling back. The Trump administration's persistence that Europe pay for its own defence has cast fresh light on the Old Continent's dire situation after decades of slow development and minimized costs.

The Centre for Economic Policy Research assessed at the end of last year that Euro area economic performance has been 'subdued' considering that around 2018, illustrating 'complex challenges of energy reliance, producing vulnerabilities, and moving global trade characteristics'.

There stay extensive inconsistencies in between European economies; German deindustrialisation has struck companies hard and forced redundancies, while Spain has actually grown in line with its tourism-focused economy.

This remains fragile, nevertheless, with homeowners significantly agitated by the viewed pandering to foreign visitors as they are priced out of affordable lodging and caught in low paying seasonal tasks.

The Henry Jackson Society is a diplomacy and national security think thank based in the UK.

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